2011 Game 5: two runs down in Texas

The tying run starts in the dugout

St. Louis trails Texas 4–2 at the start of the ninth, with Allen Craig facing Neftalí Feliz. A solo home run helps, but it cannot tie the score by itself. Getting more than one hitter aboard is the central problem. Albert Pujols is on deck, so replacing Craig or forcing a low-percentage play should be considered in the context of the next plate appearance, not just this one.

Protect the outs you need

A sacrifice bunt after the leadoff hitter reaches spends one of three outs while leaving a two-run deficit. That is a different calculation from bunting in a tie. A steal also risks removing a runner the rally needs. Compare the runner and catcher information, the occupied bases, and the hitter at the plate before treating a stolen base as a free improvement.

Read the matchup, not the reputation

The simulation supplies a pre-opening pitch sample for available pitchers where tracking exists. Use Matchup details to inspect that sample and the pitcher’s current workload. A fresh closer can still allow a rally; a famous hitter is not guaranteed a hit. Take pitch is a one-pitch instruction, useful when you want to see a pitch rather than commit to an entire passive plate appearance.

The batting order at takeover

The St. Louis Cardinals batting order below reflects the chosen opening, including substitutions already made. The first hitter shown in the matchup above is due now; the order below stays in its normal batting slots.

1. Rafael Furcal SS
2. Allen Craig RF
3. Albert Pujols 1B
4. Matt Holliday LF
5. Lance Berkman DH
6. David Freese 3B
7. Yadier Molina C
8. Jon Jay CF
9. Nick Punto 2B

What the simulation changes

The historical opening supplies the score, inning, lineup, available players, and recorded pitch counts. Your choices influence a modeled finish. Fielding and throwing errors use conservative one-base advances; passed balls, injuries, out-of-play throwing awards, and double switches are not modeled. Earlier seasons have incomplete tracking and may omit unused eligible players. Estimates are identified in the game’s scouting and data notes.